Canada's Oil Market Shift towards China

The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion has dramatically increased Canadian crude exports to China, reducing US oil imports by about 90%. This economic shift highlights changing trade partnerships amid geopolitical tensions.


Canada's Oil Market Shift towards China

Chinese imports of U.S. oil have decreased significantly, falling to 3 million barrels monthly from a peak of 29 million in June. In contrast, the Trans Mountain pipeline, which connects Edmonton, Alberta, with the Westridge Marine Terminal in Burnaby, British Columbia, is emerging as a key player in the global oil market.

Equipped with a nominal capacity of approximately 890,000 barrels per day, the expanded Trans Mountain system began operations in May 2024. This important development has enabled China, and other Asian countries, to access the vast oil reserves located in Alberta's oil sands.

The expansion of Trans Mountain has particularly facilitated the import of Canadian crude, leading to a shift in China's trade patterns, which now acquires unprecedented amounts. According to Vortexa data, in March, Chinese crude imports from the port at the pipeline terminal near Vancouver reached 7.3 million barrels, a considerable increase from the previous capacity of 300,000 barrels per day.

The Canadian government acquired Trans Mountain in 2018 through Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, and it is operated by Trans Mountain Corporation. According to projections from Trans Mountain Corporation, the project is expected to add CAD 9.2 billion to GDP and generate CAD 2.8 billion in tax revenue between 2024 and 2043.

The Trans Mountain pipeline has allowed China to diversify its crude supplies at a time of trade tensions with the United States, which have driven the Asian country to seek alternative sources of oil. Wenran Jiang, chair of the Canada-China Energy and Environment Forum, pointed out that, given the trade war, it is unlikely that China will increase its imports of U.S. oil, making Canada an increasingly relevant strategic partner. Canadian oil sands offer relatively economical crude that is compatible with Chinese refineries, contributing to the consolidation of this new trade relationship.

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