Mexico has never been well received by Canadian politicians as a partner, so we must remain alert to what happens and its implications," he mentioned.
Although Trudeau responded that "there is not the slightest possibility" that Canada would annex as the 51st state of the United States amid Donald Trump's insistence, with the arrival of a new prime minister, this idea would be rejected by Canadians, according to the Canadian politics expert.
"Canada will continue on an institutional path. For Mexico, the arrival of a conservative or liberal prime minister does not imply an improvement in relations," he expressed.
According to local polls, Poilievre would currently win a general election with a wide majority.
"Poilievre's problem is that he has a very close relationship with Elon Musk. Mexico would be facing President Trump and a Canadian prime minister who would play the role requested by Elon Musk," he considered.
The also co-coordinator of the Permanent Seminar on Canadian Studies (SPEC) indicated that if Mark Carney wins the elections in Canada, Claudia Sheinbaum's government could establish negotiations "not so committed to the US."
"It is difficult for Mark Carney to win, but his figure and leadership could undermine the Conservative Party's chances of achieving a majority government, which would be positive for Mexico. Canada and the next prime minister do not have that capacity to fracture the USMCA," he assured.
How should Mexico act in response to the new Canadian minister?
Just as it did with Donald Trump’s administration, President Claudia Sheinbaum's government will have to seek cooperation as much as possible with the new Canadian government.
"Even though Canadian Minister Justin Trudeau is working together (until the Liberal Party finds a new leader) with Claudia Sheinbaum's government to combat tariffs that the United States has imposed on both countries, Oliver Santín indicated that Mexico should stay alert to what happens in Canada.
"Canadians tend to present themselves with a friendly and smooth face, but behind that, they often have agendas of attacking Mexico. We have the case of Ontario's Premier Doug Ford, who claimed that Mexico should impose the same tariffs that Canada and the US impose on China," he declared in an interview with El Financiero.
According to the specialist, Mexico's consolidation as the number one trading partner of the United States has created fractures in the bilateral relationship due to concerns in Canada about the trade relationship between Mexico and China.
"We are going to see a conservative anti-Mexican movement, precisely because of Mexico's position in the US market; we have displaced Canada as the privileged partner it enjoyed for many decades in its international trade," he pointed out.
How will the relationship between Mexico and Canada change with a new minister?
For Oliver Santín, Mexico should be concerned if any of the three main candidates wins the elections in Canada: The candidate for the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre, the candidate for the Liberal Party, Mark Carney, or the former Minister of Finance, Chrystia Freeland, who is running for the same party.
"The Government of Justin Trudeau is in a very fragile position, waiting for the next elections; it is managing the final aspects of its administration, the country is in a political pause. If a minority government comes in, it won't be so grave for our country; it will be bad in terms of rhetoric, but not in operational terms," he emphasized.
Can Canada expel Mexico from the USMCA?
After Canadian politicians suggested expelling Mexico from the USMCA, the Master in International Relations from UNAM dismissed that Canada could remove Mexico from the pact.
"Pierre Poilievre has indicated that Mexico is problematic for the USMCA; Canada cannot remove Mexico from the USMCA. If we refer to something that in political science we call Realpolitik, the USMCA works because the US wants it to work. Liberals have tried to tone down this situation and point to Mexico as a competitor, but conservatives do not disguise it and clearly indicate it. It would not benefit Mexico to have a conservative prime minister like Poilievre, close to Musk, due to all the strategies the businessman has implemented in favor of right-wing parties. It’s not like Trudeau resigns and the country is left without a head. As soon as the US has a different idea, the USMCA will adopt that idea or adapt to what the United States wants," he specified.
The Canadian opposition figure, Pierre Poilievre, has said he is willing to negotiate a trade agreement with the United States that excludes Mexico, in addition to stating that he will do "whatever it takes" to preserve the relationship between Ottawa and Washington. Analyzing these statements, Santín Peña asserted that neither Canada nor Mexico have the possibility to "dismantle" the USMCA.
"The vast majority of people are not in agreement; they are offended by the 51st state situation, so it would be very difficult for that to happen," he concluded.
In this sense, it would be a complicated matter to seek to annex Canada," he said.
In this regard, the internationalist dismissed the idea that the candidate Pierre Poilievre could endorse Trump's idea because he might lose voters.
"He must maintain a balance so as not to lose voters. The resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the entry of a new ruler to Rideau Hall, in Ottawa, Ontario, could trigger an "anti-Mexican conservative movement" because Mexico is the main supplier of the United States, ahead of China and Canada. Oliver Santín Peña, a Doctor in Political and Social Sciences from UNAM, who points out that the relationship between Mexico and Canada is not at its best after Donald Trump's return to the White House."
