Only 9 percent of surveyed individuals believe that the Canadian economy will strengthen in the next six months, according to a Nanos Research study for Bloomberg News. This survey has highlighted how Trump's trade policy has impacted Canada. The U.S. president's tariff threats have created uncertainty in the nation, affecting various sectors.
Last year, the United States had a goods trade deficit of $63 billion with Canada, purchasing goods totaling $413 billion and selling $350 billion. Although tariffs have not yet been implemented, a prolonged trade war could diminish Canadian exports and lead the country into a recession, according to economists who have already lowered growth projections for the year.
Nik Nanos, founder of the polling company, mentioned: "The threat of tariffs against Canada has affected consumer confidence." The governor of the Bank of Canada, Tiff Macklem, has warned about the impact that a tariff war between the U.S. and Canada could have on the country's production, estimating a 3 percent reduction over two years.
President Trump has expressed concerns over various issues with Canada, which has contributed to generating tensions. Canadian confidence has declined in regions such as Ontario and British Columbia, where the automotive and natural resource industries are sensitive to exports. Canadians' perceptions of their personal finances, job security, the real estate market, and the economy overall influence the confidence index.
The Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Index has dropped to 49.3 last week, compared to 50.8 at the end of January, reflecting a pessimistic mood among respondents. With 65 percent of Canadians expecting an economic downturn in the next six months, a challenging outlook presents itself for the country. Younger individuals appear more optimistic than older ones.
The deterioration in the economic perception of certain sectors in Canada reflects the uncertainty generated by the possibility of tariffs and instability in trade relations with the United States. Analyses show that the impact could be significant on the Canadian economy in the event of an escalation in trade disputes, which has led to a decline in consumer confidence in this country.
